UFC 316 - What to Expect and Predictions

Date & Location: June 7, 2025 at Wayne’s Prudential Center, Newark, NJ
Broadcast: Early prelims at 6 p.m. ET, late prelims at 8 p.m., and the PPV main card at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+

🧾 Full Fight Card

Main Card (PPV Starts 10 p.m. ET)

Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Sean O’Malley: Dvalishvili Maintain relentless takedown, endure fight-long cardio to neutralize O’Malley’s striking

Julianna Peña (c) vs. Kayla Harrison: Harrison Use elite judo to secure takedowns early and avoid Peña’s boxing threat

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer: Pyfer Implement pressure grappling to control pace and avoid Gastelum’s striking

Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix: Mix Leverage high-level grappling submission skills to dominate on the ground

Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland: HollandKeep fight standing, avoid Luque's heavy hands, and outstrike him with volume

Prelims (8 p.m. ET)

  • Bruno Silva vs. Joshua Van → Van (superior volume striking)

  • Azamat Murzakanov vs. Brendson Ribeiro → Murzakanov (knockout power, fast finish)

  • Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta → Spivac (size and wrestling). Covers favored Cortes-Acosta (+120) but many expect Spivac

  • Khaos Williams vs. Andreas Gustafsson → Williams, due to athleticism turnaround\

Early Prelims (6 p.m. ET)

  • Ariane da Silva vs. Wang Cong → Wang (better cardio and control)

  • Jeka Saragih vs. Yoo Joo‑sang → Yoo Joo‑sang (technical edge)

  • Quillan Salkilld vs. Yanal Ashmouz → Salkilld (stronger wrestling)

  • MarQuel Mederos vs. Mark Choinski → Mederos (power and athleticism)

🔮 Breakdown & Expert Picks

1. Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2

  • Odds: Dvalishvili ~-285, O’Malley +230

  • Analysis:

    • Dvalishvili remains favored due to his unmatched cardio and wrestling

    • O’Malley hopes to land body kicks and long-range strikes to sap Dvalishvili’s gas tank

    • Prediction: Dvalishvili wins via decision or attrition-style finish.

2. Peña vs. Harrison

  • Odds: Harrison ~-600, Peña +42

  • Analysis: Harrison’s judo pedigree and physicality dominate; Peña must defend takedowns and land brutal counter punches

  • Prediction: Harrison wins late in round 2 after control and ground dominance.

3. Gastelum vs. Pyfer

  • Odds & Prediction: Pyfer favored; expected to submit Gastelum

  • Key to Win (Pyfer): Pressure wrestling, low kicks, avoid Gastelum’s overhand rights.

4. Bautista vs. Mix

  • Odds & Prediction: Mix favored to KO or submit Bautista

  • Key to Win (Mix): Use elite grappling transitions; avoid Bautista's striking range.

5. Holland vs. Luque

  • Odds & Prediction: Holland favored for KO

  • Key to Win (Holland): Maintain distance, use blitz boxing, avoid wild exchange with Luque.

🔍 Betting & Expert Analysis

  • Underdog picks: Many believe Pyfer, Mix, and Holland could land surprise finishes .

  • Round props: Harrison likely to win by round 2, Dvalishvili in later rounds

  • Commentators Joe Rogan & Bisping emphasize Dvalishvili as “superhuman” cardio wise, doubting O’Malley’s ability to keep the pressure at bay.

    Final Thoughts

UFC 316 delivers two high-stakes title fights with dominant wrestlers at the forefront and dynamic challengers aiming for upsets. Expect Dvalishvili and Harrison to confirm their dominance, while the middle and undercard bouts could deliver explosive finishes from rising stars like Pyfer, Mix, and Holland.